Weekly Commentary

publication date: Aug 24, 2019

NOTE;  All posts are opinions only.  No investment advice is given.  Consult with a financial adviser and do your own due diligence before trading.
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2019-Dec-25  1:51pm  - The hourly $SPY chart suggests some vulnerability to short-term profit taking.  However, the last time this pattern set up (just a few days ago), the market traded sideways for a couple days before squeezing higher.

 

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The daily $SPY chart remains healthy: overbought, but no signs of negative divergence yet.

 

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The long-term bull market shows no signs of ending, although the monthy $SPY chart indicates that volume is gradually drying up which makes equities vulnerable to a period of increased volatility or price correction at some point. 

 

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The daily $GLD chart recently printed a Buy Signal for gold. This is a longer-term signal and suggests $GLD will move to new 52-week highs in January (above $146).

 

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One final reminder:  The stock market rally of the last several years is misleading.  When the Dow Jones Industrial Average is priced in terms of gold  (specifically, it's $DJIA divided by $GOLD), you can see that the market has actually retraced only 38% of the drop from 2001-2011.  The brand new ATHs that we're seeing every day are based on inflated numbers from ever-increasing Federal Reserve intervention and NOT from a truly booming stock market.  Look at this 20-year chart:

 

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